The Way Out

Nearest Black Hole

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:06:00 +0000

New measurements show that the nearest black hole to Earth is only about half as far away as previously thought. Don't worry, though. There's still about 7,800 light years between it and us. That's a huge distance, even for something as powerful as a black hole.

Of course, our current search techniques aren't perfect, and the various objects in the galaxy are in constant motion, so there's no guarantee astronomers will never find a black hole closer to us than the current record holder. However, the Earth has been around for 4.5 billion years or so, and there's no reason to think it won't be around, orbiting a life sustaining Sun, for a very long time to come.

Black holes are not things to worry about, in any case. Time and energy and worry are best directed at matters that can be altered by human effort-- curing disease, ending wars, grappling with widespread poverty. If a black hole did have Earth in its crosshairs, there's absolutely nothing we could do about it. Not now, and not for thousands or perhaps millions of years.

ALH84001

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:34:00 +0000

In 1996, a team of NASA researchers made big news by announcing they had found evidence for life on Mars in a meteor that had come from Mars. The meteor had been the first found in 1984 in the Allen Hills of Antarctica, and had been labeled ALH84001.

The claim was controversial. Many scientists argued the tiny structures inside the rock the NASA team saw as fossils could have non-biological explanations. Supporters of the life theory often conceded that point, but argued the most likely explanation was life.

After a decade of intensive study of Mars by numerous spacecraft designed to pursue numerous approaches to data-gathering, the case for life on Mars-- either in the past or currently existing-- is far from clinched. However, an argument for a warmer, wetter Mars early in its history-- and perhaps fairly recently-- seems to be strengthening. That Mars, of course, would have been more conducive to life.

Using better tools and more knowledge than were available in 1996, a team at NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, which, it should be noted, included the key members of the 1996 team, has reexamined the meteor. The 2009 conclusion? The most likely explanation of the structures in the rock is Martian life.

Dragon To ISS

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 17:57:00 +0000

SpaceX's cargo capsule Dragon is scheduled to make the first of three demonstration flights to ISS between May and November next year. During that time three astronauts who have worked with Dragon will be aboard ISS if all goes as planned, and the company has said the first Dragon flight will take place when an astronaut familiar with the vehicle is on board the space station.

That's more important than it may seem at first blush. Dragon will not dock with the station. Instead, like Japan's cargo ship, Dragon will simply fly close enough to ISS for a robotic arm, operated by an astronaut, to grab it and bring it into the station.

SpaceX's Falcon 9 launcher will carry Dragon to space, and the first flight of that configuration is scheduled for early next year. After the three demonstration flights, SpaceX already has a contract with NASA to fly 12 cargo flights to ISS through 2015. That contract is worth $1.6 billion. The company is also working on man-rating both Falcon 9 and Dragon so that the company could ferry crews between Earth and low Earth orbit.

Iapetus Explained

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 18:07:00 +0000

For over 300 years, astronomers have known there was something odd about Saturn's moon, Iapetus. The leading hemisphere is much darker than the trailing. Recent images taken by the Cassini spacecraft confirm the leading explanation of the contrast.

As Iapetus orbits Saturn, dust-- perhaps from other moons, perhaps from Saturn's rings-- falls onto the leading hemisphere. Dust is much darker than ice, hence that hemisphere has become darker. Reinforcing the process, the layers of dust slightly warms the surface, which allows water vapor to migrate to the trailing hemisphere, where it freezes back into ice. The small size of Iapetus-- about 900 miles in diameter-- and, therefore, its low gravity also aids the migration of the water vapor, further supporting the entire process.

Spirit Wheel Problem

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:38:00 +0000

NASA's Mars rovers each have six wheels. Opportunity, after nearly six years on the planet, continues to roll right along.

Spirit, however, has had more problems. It has been functioning without an operating right front wheel since 2006, and for the past several months has been stuck in deep sand. During NASA's recent attempts to extricate Spirit, the right rear wheel has stopped spinning, perhaps permanently. The rovers were designed to function on four wheels if necessary-- three, if the right three-- but NASA isn't sure Spirit can get out of its current predicament with two dead wheels.

A time factor is also beginning to loom. Winter at Spirit's location on Mars begins in May 2010. Given the precise way the rover is situated, NASA doesn't believe it could gather enough solar energy to survive the winter. So, the fight to save Spirit might be reduced to a simple imperative. Move or die. In six months.

Saturn's Hexagon

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:20:00 +0000

One of the most bizarre things yet found in the Solar System is the hexagon of clouds that extends deep into Saturn's atmosphere directly over the planet's north pole. For the past several years, the area has been in darkness during Saturn's northern winter, but it is now emerging into light, and Cassini is taking the best pictures yet of the formation.

A jetstream of wind surrounds the formation, seeming to hold it together. Coming off each of the six corners is a wave of wind. Exactly how those features explain the formation is completely unclear at the moment, but the hexagon has been there for at least thirty years, so scientists will probably have plenty of time to puzzle it out.

Getting MRO Back

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:50:00 +0000

NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter has been out of the data gathering business since August, when it put its main computer in safe mode. The craft had also had computer problems in February and June, so when the August event occurred JPL engineers decided to do a thorough study of MRO's software.

That study completed, JPL started uploading software fixes to the probe a couple weeks ago, and engineers hope to be getting data from MRO again by next week. That would be a big plus for Mars science. MRO is the most powerful of the probes currently orbiting Mars, and even with its computer problems has sent back more data about the planet than all other Mars probes combined.

Space Junk Conference

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 17:35:00 +0000

A conference seeking ways to deal with the space junk problem is being held in Washington this week. It is sponsored by NASA and DARPA-- two agencies famed for their high tech expertise.

An estimated 300,000 objects of one centimeter across or larger are whizzing around low Earth orbit. They are the core of the problem. Even a tiny piece of debris traveling at several times the speed of a bullet fired from a high-powered rifle could cause great damage to the thin skin and delicate electronics of a satellite, for example. Such debris could also be a real threat to manned spacecraft and astronauts' EVA spacesuits.

There is no shortage of possible technical fixes. The real tough parts of solving the problem may lie elsewhere. For example-- who will pay for the cleanup? There are also legal and national security issues to be worked out. After all, a technology that could take a dead satellite out of orbit could presumably also take a live, important satellite out. Solving that problem and finding effective ways to control the technology central to dealing with larger pieces of debris is key to dealing with the overall issue.

Not Only In America

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:25:00 +0000

A steady refrain of space program critics in America is that major NASA programs consistently run way over budget. Those folks, it should be noted, constitute a subset of critics of programs that run over budget across the scope of government activity. NASA is not unique, and could do better if Congress was more concerned about the budgeting needs of highly complex new technology programs. Political calculations, however, too often trump fiscal ones, for NASA, Defense, and a myriad of other government projects.

Budget overruns don't only happen in America, though. Japan's government seems on the verge of canceling a major rocket development program, the GX, because of large budget overruns in a bad economy-- and because Japan's current workhorse rocket is performing exceedingly well.

Watching how the worldwide recession affects space development over the next few years will be interesting. To the extent it makes financing private space companies more difficult, the financial collapse might delay the corporate expansion into space, and put the leadership of the drive into fewer hands. Whether that would be good or bad will be the judgment of future generations to make. Government space efforts will likely be cut back, but the tough economic environment and the need to create good jobs may work to internationalize large space projects. The building of ISS could serve as a model both of how to proceed and what to avoid. Establishing an international lunar base is an obvious example of a reasonable, useful project that has appeal in several major nations.

Milestones

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:01:00 +0000

Today marks the thirty-seventh anniversary of the launch of Apollo 17-- the last Apollo mission to the Moon. Tomorrow, December 7, will be the sixty-eighth anniversary of a turning point in modern history, the Japanese attack on the U. S. Navy's Pacific Fleet in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Far from securing Japanese dominance in the Pacific, the American response to the attack led to the United States achieving superpower status and the American leadership of the Free World in a tense contest with Communist totalitarianism. That contest gave birth to Apollo.

Tomorrow will also see the unveiling of Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo, which will be the first craft to provide paying custoners suborbital flights to the edge of space. VG plans to commence those commercial flights in 2011, assuming planned test flights go as expected. SpaceShipTwo will carry six passengers and be operated by two pilots. VG already has 250 confirmed customers; at six a pop, that's more than sixty flights already filled. At $200,000 per ticket, VG already has $50 million in ticket sales alone.

SpaceShipTwo will be unveiled in Mojave, California, near America's Pacific Coast.

Pondering Safety

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:02:00 +0000

Congress has begun a process aimed at developing a safety regime that would allow NASA astronauts to fly to orbit aboard commercial spacecraft. Currently, between the retirement of the space shuttle, likely in 2011, and the first flight of Orion, which might be delayed until 2017 because of budget problems, astronauts will have to hitch rides in Russian Soyuz capsules. For various reasons, many people are unhappy about such a Russian monopoly of access to a largely U. S.-built space station.

Of course, at the moment there are no commercial human-rated spacecraft, much less any capable of orbital flight, but there are companies working towards that goal. SpaceX and Orbital Sciences already have contracts with NASA to build cargo ships that will take supplies to ISS, and both are looking at transforming those unmanned vehicles into human-rated capsules. Several other NewSpace companies-- plus, perhaps, Lockheed Martin and Boeing-- are also trying to develop manned spacecraft. One, Interorbital Systems, plans a private orbital flight in 2011.

Before NASA will risk astronauts' lives in such vehicles, however, the craft will have to meet NASA safety requirements. The U. S. House committee with oversight of space policy has held hearings gathering testimony and facts about the safety issue. The committee is urging NASA and the FAA to cooperate in developing safety standards for commercial craft. NASA says it would probably take three years for it to be satisfied that a commercial spaceship was safe enough to fly astronauts. Three years doesn't seem an inordinate amount of time if a new company can get NASA's seal of approval.

Servicing ISS

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:55:00 +0000

Extending the lifetime of ISS beyond its current termination scheduled for 2015 would require cargo flights after 2015, and Europe and Japan are beginning to look at ways to pay for additional flights of the cargo ships they have developed.

The Augustine committee probably reflected the views of many in the space community when it argued ISS should be extended at least through 2020. Taking twenty years to complete the station and using it in its full capability for only four years makes very little sense, yet that is the current U. S. plan.

Europe and Japan both might run into budget constraints as the governments involved try to navigate the current economic downturn. As has happened in the U. S. for decades, when governments want to show they're being fiscally prudent, space budgets seem to be among the first to be slashed. If Europe and Japan fail to get funding, supplying ISS would fall to Russia, and perhaps to U. S. commercial carriers just now developing the necessary craft.

Space Solar Power

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:39:00 +0000

The idea of powering human civilization by collecting energy fron the Sun in huge satellites and beaming it into Earth's electrical grid has been around for decades. If things go right, the concept may finally be tested soon. Japan is studying a plan that would allow that island nation to get a large percentage of its energy from space-based solar by the 2030s. California is looking at a proposal to develop space-based solar as a viable energy alternative in fifteen years, and various other governments and private companies are looking at what's possible.

In a world quickly approaching nine billion humans, with expensive energy and climate damage, getting clean, limitless energy from the Sun is certainly attractive. At some point, the cost of space-based solar will be competitive with, say, oil, as that resource gets harder and harder to develop. Nor does space-based solar have the potential for disaster nuclear plants have. The guts of a SSP system, the huge satellite, would be beyond natural disasters, and would be beyond the reach of terrorist and most military attacks. Indeed, a mature SSP system would be a decentralized system; attacking one satellite would make very little sense.

Getting the energy from space to Earth is still a problem. Microwaves and lasers have been proposed as possible modes of delivery, but their effects on the atmosphere are still unclear. Building huge structures in space and keeping them properly oriented and maintained for decades or longer are still likely engineering feats beyond our capability, too, but that can change. In 1961, putting a man on the Moon and safely returning him to the Earth was utterly beyond any human agency-- but it wasn't by 1969.

SuperEarths And Life

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:05:00 +0000

Harvard astronomy professor Dimitar Sasselov coined the term "SuperEarth" to refer to worlds similar to Earth, but with two to ten times the mass. Now, Sasselov is arguing such worlds might be better able to support life than our own.

He bases his argument principally on increased geologic energy on the more massive planets-- especially more efficient plate tectonics. That's important because tectonic shifts release carbon into the environment, and carbon is essential for life. Sasselov goes on to speculate that most civilizations might, therefore, be found on SuperEarths, and suggests that might explain why Earth hasn't been visited by aliens. Either the aliens haven't developed the technology to allow them to escape the deep gravity well of their home planet, or they see smal worlds like Earth as unikely homes of life.

Not to question a Harvard astronomy professor, but an extremely active planet geologically-- with volcanoes constantly erupting and the surface in a constant state of change-- doesn't seem like a good place for advanced civilization to rise and thrive. Life, perhaps; civilization capable of space travel, maybe not. There is also the matter of that strong gravitational field. Surely such a planet would tend to bring even more comets and asteroids to itself than Earth does, and we know life on Earth could be extinguished under such a bombardment. Increase the number of objects coming in, and the speed with which they hit the surface under the stronger gravity, and sustaining life might be problematical.

ISS Crew To Two

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:15:00 +0000

A major rationale for keeping the space shuttle flying this long was to complete ISS so that it could accomodate a crew of six. Six could do more science than three. Fine. Through most of December, 2009, however, the ISS crew will have a grand total of two.

Most of the time of the two men will be devoted to station keeping duties. Some science will be done, but the emphasis will be on keeping the station functioning.

A Soyuz flight is scheduled for December 23 that will bring the ISS crew strength back up,

Space Junk And ISS

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:02:00 +0000

NASA had to closely monitor two pieces of space junk that potentially threatened ISS this past week. Fortunately, neither came close enough to force NASA to maneuver the space station.

Space junk is increasingly seen as a threat to future space operations. These two are only the latest possible threats to ISS. So far, they have all missed-- ISS, after all, is a tiny target in the vastness of orbital space-- but at some point a piece of debris could hit an active, important satellite, or a manned mission to the Moon, or force ISS to be maneuvered away.

One interesting proposal to deal with the problem is to allow private industry to retrieve debris and bring it back to Earth. There is a national security problem with that approach, however. Anybody who could track down and capture useless pieces of junk in space would also have the capability to capture or destroy active vehicles. The counter to that would be to build defensive systems into satellites that might be targeted, but that would increase the cost of satellites, as well as increase the complexity of the satellites, which would result in higher failure rates.

Dealing with the problem of space junk may be no more sexy than dealing with Earthly junk, but dealing with both is necessary.

STS-129 Home

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 17:28:00 +0000

Space shuttle Atlantis landed safely in Florida this morning, ending a nearly flawlessly executed STS-129 mission that delivered 15 tons of equopment and supplies to ISS.

That leaves five scheduled shuttle missions left in the program. The next one is scheduled for February, so it's still possible NASA could wrap up the program in 2010, but more likely the last flight or two will slip into 2011. Congress seems willing to fund such an extension, but why wouldn't it? After spending hundreds of billions-- at least-- over the latest few years over and above an already huge federal budget with a large deficit feeding a staggering national debt, four or five billion more to fly the the last couple shuttle missions is chump change.

What happens to NASA's human spaceflight program after the shuttle, however, is still open to question. Some interesting ideas are floating around, but the Obama administration has yet to make the decision.

Now, It's A Wheel

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:32:00 +0000

During NASA's latest attempt to find a way to free its Mars rover, Spirit, the vehicle's left rear wheel stalled. Both rovers have six wheels to help them navigate the rugged terrain, but Spirit has been operating with five for a while. One of its other wheels also stalled once, but engineers were able to get it back in operation.

NASA's next attempt to get Spirit moving is scheduled for today.

Kecksburg

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:29:00 +0000

According to UFOlogists, and local media at the time, a rather large object made a controlled landing in the woods around Kecksburg, Pennsylvania, in December, 1965. Exactly what the object was has been open to question ever since. Some say a major military recovery operation was carried out, while others say nothing of the sort happened.

Investigative journalist Leslie Kean, working with The Sci-Fi Channel, filed a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit in 2002 seeking documents from NASA related to Kecksburg. Finally, this year, NASA released hundreds of documents to Ms. Kean pursuant to her long ago FOIA request. She reports there is no "smoking gun" in any of the documents, but that still leaves what landed near Kecksburg and what happened to it unresolved. Kean leans to a secret U. S. Government project as the answer, but says she can't rule out an extraterrestrial spacecraft as a possibility.

The more immediate concern, Kean argues, is how the FOIA works. She has a point. If the federal Freedom of Information Act is to be a tool useful to citizens and journalists trying to keep tabs on what the government is currently doing, it needs to produce faster results. Otherwise, it becomes a tool useful only to historians-- and an imperfect tool even then.

Astronauts To Asteroids?

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:04:00 +0000

The continuing review of NASA's post-shuttle manned spaceflight program has produced an interesting possibility. Lockheed Martin, prime contractor of the Orion spacecraft, has conducted a study which looks at using Orion-- possibly two Orions linked together-- to fly humans to a near Earth asteroid.

Such a mission has several positives in its favor. After all the years since Apollo, it would finally have humans going beyond Earth orbit again-- truly exploring space. Such a project, dubbed "Plymouth Rock" in the Lockheed study, would also spark greater efforts to identify asteroids that cross Earth's orbit, making it more likely we would find one on a collision course with our planet before it was in our laps. Flying the mission would develop the skills necessary to rendezvous, study, and interact with an asteroid. A flight to a properly chosen asteroid would also be the ideal bridge mission between a short lunar trip and a long voyage to Mars, serving as a test of technology for a future Mars ship.

Asteroids are important to the future of deep space exploration, as well. Many contain large stores of volatiles-- especially water-- that could support missions; the rock would also be ideal shielding against radiation. As a space-based economy is developed, asteroids will supply many essential raw materials.

NASA likes Lockheed's idea. If the White House does, and if the preliminary plans can be successfully developed into a tight, strong mission plan, humans could be on their way to a near Earth asteroid in the 2020-2025 time period.

Successful Spacewalk

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:12:00 +0000

Even after being awakened by a false alarm on ISS, and even though one spacewalker was awaiting word of the birth of a baby, STS-129 astronauts put together what may be called a "spacerun" Saturday, completing every scheduled task and going on to perform tasks scheduled for the next excursion.

The next spacewalk is planned for Monday. By the way, the baby, a girl, was born after her father had finished his work outside, and both baby and mother seem to be doing well.

Slight Success For Spirit

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:57:00 +0000

NASA engineers trying to work the Spirit rover out of the Martian sand trap it got stuck in last April have finally found some success. Spirit moved. Not much-- less than an inch in three-dimensional space-- but it did move. It got off the dime. Further, this attempt was limited, a test to see what might happen.

NASA is analyzing exactly what did happen before deciding what to do next. Now, though, at least there is hope that at some point Spirit will be able to resume its explorations.

Apollo 12

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 17:51:00 +0000

Lest we forget, today marks the fortieth anniversary of the second manned landing on the Moon. Apollo 12 was a remarkable mission in other ways, too. Struck by lightning seconds after launch, the mission, far from being aborted, was successfully completed. The precision flying and pinpoint landing of Pete Conrad and Alan Bean proved Apollo was not limited to the wide open plains, setting the stage for later Apollo missions with challenging landing sites. Conrad and Bean also demonstrated astronauts could do important work over extended periods on the lunar surface.

Apollo 12 will probably never get the acclaim of Apollo 11, but it wrote a dramatic and extraordinary chapter in the history of space exploration.

U. S., China To Talk Space

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:08:00 +0000

As President Obama ended his first official visit to China, the two countries released a joint statement that indicates they will pursue talks across a range of issues, including cooperation in space. That cooperation is to include human spaceflight. The NASA Administrator and the head of China's space effort are to exchange visits next year.

To cooperate with China in human spaceflight, of course, presumes America will have a human spaceflight capability after the space shuttle is retired. Mr. Obama, from his presidential campaign, has seemed to be a supporter of human spaceflight, but NASA remains in a holding pattern until he decides the future thrust in that area.

Statements out of China, on the other hand, have made it clear that the Chinese intend to remain in manned space. China seems to plan a small space station for the next decade, and a manned lunar landing sometime in the 2020s. China has also expressed some interest in participating in an international program to establish a lunar base. Indeed, several major nations have expressed interest in such a project. Perhaps the best approach to establishing mankind's first permanent outpost on another world, for a variety of reasons, would be to create a program backed by several nations.

So Far, So Good

noreply@blogger.com (Gregory Anderson) — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:33:00 +0000

By the looks of the launch, STS-129 got off to a good start. Still, NASA is taking a good chunk of the first full day in space to inspect Atlantis' heat shield for possible damage. Such inspections have become standard operating procedure since the loss of Columbia in 2003.

Atlantis is scheduled to dock with ISS tomorrow, after which the task of transferring spare parts from the shuttle payload bay to the space station will begin. Three spacewalks are planned.

There will also be another close inspection of the orbiter's heat shield.