Trouble for Private Launch

Rocketplane Kistler won a contract with NASA last year to build a launch system capable of delivering cargo to the International Space Station. Instead of going with a major aerospace corporation, NASA bet on two startup companies-- RpK, as it's called, and SpaceX, a California company led by the Internet megabuckser Elon Musk. At the time of winning the contract, neither company had put anything into space. By giving them that opportunity, NASA was clearly trying to support the emerging New Space industry.

RpK, however, is in danger of losing its contract. Even with the NASA backing, it has failed to find the necessary additional private funding. Technological progress has also been slower than projected. The next month might be critical to the company's relationship with NASA.

If RpK is dropped by NASA, SpaceX might benefit. It seems to be on firmer financial ground, and it has conducted test flights of its system, with moderate success. If neither company can develop a reliable launch system within the next three years, however, NASA might be driven back into the arms of the current aerospace establishment. That might mean commercial space will come as an extended process rather than an historic, emphatic boom.