BA's Potential Problem

Bigelow Aerospace seems well on its way to proving its concept of inflatable space habitats. The company has two experimental modules in Earth orbit now, and both have performed extremely well. So well, in fact, that BA is now aiming to put a man-rated habitat in orbit by 2010.

Executives at BA are concerned, however, that when their habitat is ready for people, there may be no cost effective way to get people to it. By 2010, the space shuttle will be retired-- it's expensive to fly, anyway-- and the next NASA manned spacecraft won't be ready yet. That leaves the Russian Soyuz, and possibly a private spacecraft or two. If Soyuz is the only ride out for a few years, Russia will be in a very strong economic position. No private orbital craft that may exist by 2010 will yet have a safety record of any length.

In the oil industry, there are the "integrateds"-- corporations that operate at every level through the petroleum cycle, from exploration through to the gas station on the corner. Such corporations, in any industry, bring anti-trust concerns, and many have been broken up over the past several decades as a result, but that may be the way to open space to commerce. If BA had a launch capability it was developing in tandem with its inflatable habitats, progress need not be slowed for lack of a partner. Controlling every aspect of the project would also allow tighter financial control. Galactic Suites, for example, seems to be taking that approach.

John D. Rockefeller took that approach in building Standard Oil. At some point, the U. S. Government broke up Standard to encourage competition, but by then the oil industry was firmly established.