Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Missing the Mars Mark

As reported in this blog, astronomers recently found an asteroid that looked as if it might slam into the planet Mars on January 30. The latest observations and calculations, however, lower the odds of a collision to a 1-in-40 chance. That's still high in cosmic terms, but the chances are decreasing, not increasing, and astronomers see no reason for that trend to reverse.

The saga of Asteroid 2007 WD5 remains a cautionary tale, however. Astronomers at the University of Arizona only discovered the body last month, during a sky survey. Had it been headed for Earth, there is nothing we could've done to avoid a collision. A body that size would not be a Doomsday Rock, but it could cause a major tragedy. It could level most or all of a large city. Or, if it struck in an ocean, as is the likeliest possibility for any such event, it would have raised huge tsunamis, causing destruction over a wide area.

The key to intervening to stop such a collision is early detection of potentially dangerous objects, There are small programs aimed at doing that detecting now, but perhaps, in this presidential election year, a prudent candidate should suggest beefing up planetary defense efforts.

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