Challenger

Twenty-three years ago tomorrow, the space shuttle Challenger exploded 73 seconds after launch. The members of that Challenger crew were the first humans to die during a NASA space mission. They remain the only people to die in the launch phase of a NASA mission. Given the complexity and inherent risk of launching spacecraft with current technology, that is a remarkable safety record-- one perhaps too little acknowledged.

In fact, the overall safety record of human spaceflight is astounding when put against the difficulty of the task. Newcomer China has flown only successful manned missions so far. The Russian Soyuz has a remarkable safety record that spans decades. The early years of in-atmosphere aviation, on the other hand, are littered with death and disaster.

The private spaceflight industry will start out with much better technology than NASA or the Soviets had early on, and it will have a much more robust knowledge base to draw upon. The problem will be exceeding NASA's safety record.