Obama's Space Plan

President Obama's NASA budget cancels a return to the Moon by American astronauts any time soon. Instead, it supports extending the life of ISS until 2020, guarantees five more shuttle missions even if they do slip into 2011, seeks to once again make NASA a driver of technological and scientific innovation, and backs the development of human-rated spacecraft capable of reaching low Earth orbit by private companies. Development of such craft would be intended to provide some competition to the Russian Soyuz in the post-shuttle era.

Looked at from a long-term perspective, the President's plan may not be bad. Supporters argue it tries to establish an infrastructure that will allow deep space missions on a sustained basis sometime down the road. Politics in democratic societies, however, generally focus on the near term, and many members of Congress are unhappy with the President's plan. Congress, after all, has voted repeatedly in favor of returning astronauts to the Moon by 2020.

There is another factor, as well. If NASA doesn't return astronauts to the Moon for another twenty years, there may be no incentive to do so at all. China seems interested in its own manned lunar landing before then. Russia may try, as well. There are stirrings about an international lunar base-- and then there are private efforts. Interorbital Systems of Mojave, California, plans to have its own substantial lunar base in the 2015-2020 period, and Bigelow Aerospace of North Las Vegas, Nevada, is ramping up to provide the structures of a base for whoever wants to pay for them. If these private efforts succeed, Congress could well decide there's no reason for NASA to go back to the Moon. At that point, NASA might focus on going on to Mars, or it might just fade away.