China's Lunar Plans

At a recent international scientific conference, Chinese attendees discussed their country's plans for the Moon. First on the list is the creation of a facility to house and study lunar samples. Of course, that would be of little use without the samples, and China is planning a series of robotic lunar missions, from orbiters to rovers, that would lead to a sample return mission about 2017. With that timetable in mind, beginning work on the receiving facility now not only makes perfect sense, it also underscores how serious China is about expanding its space program to include lunar studies.

Some American scientists at the conference who interacted with the Chinese are also convinced China is planning manned lunar missions, and that Chinese taikonauts will be on the Moon before American astronauts return.

Of course, judging China's real intentions has never been easy, and its intentions in this case may not ultimately be matched by its capabilities. That said, the Chinese economy continues to strengthen, the government is in a position to take whatever resources are necessary for a manned lunar program, and whatever challenges may exist to the long term stability of the current political system, that system could well maintain itself long enough to put Chinese taikonauts on the Moon.