Might China decide to show it's a super power by putting people on Mars? If China announced such an intention, would the U. S. feel obliged to take up the challenge?
The Moon Race was the result of a specific historical situation. Essentially, Kennedy and Khrushchev implicitly agreed to compete in space in an attempt to avoid World War III. It's not clear when, if ever, China and America would reach such a crossroads, and it's not clear a race to Mars would make sense if they did. There will be other ways to assert super power status, and other reasons to go to Mars.
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