ESA Difficulties

The European Space Agency is awaiting the next shuttle launch, which is scheduled to deliver its Columbus module to the ISS. Columbus is supposed to be the focus of the ESA's human spaceflight efforts over the next few years, but late last year, as reported in this blog, there were proposals being floated around Europe for a more substantial European presence in manned space. Those proposals incuded building a European manned spacecraft.

Now, such proposals seem to be in trouble. The various national governments involved in ESA are uncertain they want to shoulder the cost of a full-blown manned program. At the moment, of course, ESA astronauts ride on the American shuttle and the Russian Soyuz. When the shuttle is retired, the Soyuz will still be available to get to ISS.

That monopoly will put Russia in the driver's seat. Even when the U. S. Orion program comes online, its goal will likely be the Moon, not ferrying people to low Earth orbit. That would seem to create a splendid opportinity for any private company that can build and operate a spacecraft that can compete with the Soyuz. Several new companies are trying to seize that opportunity.

If one or more can, the next decade may be the busiest for manned spaceflight to date. Not only will ISS be there, but Bigelow Aerospace plans to have at least one manned space station in operation. BA has just announced a deal with Lochheed to use Atlas 5 launchers; Lochheed, of course, also knows a thing or two about creating high perfomance, high altitude aircraft and spacecraft-- likely precisely the mix of skills needed to build the first private, orbital, reuseable spacecraft. Other companies are looking at orbital hotels, and BA could be involved in that, as well. Space Adventures intends to be flying tourists around the Moon. A decision by Europe not to supply its astronauts with ships could be one more spur to the NewSpace industry.