Weapons In Space

A diplomatic tussle over a treaty banning the deployment of weapons in Earth orbit is currently underway. Russia and China are supporting a proposed treaty; the Bush administration argues that proposal is aimed at banning American weapons, and is therefore resistiing it. Currently, those three nations seem to be the only three with the capability and potential inclination to put weapons in orbit.

First, the weapons under discussion would destroy the other side's satellites-- and possibly manned vehicles; they are not the incinerators of cities described in science fiction. In the public relations contest, nonetheless, Russia and China clearly have the upper hand. The American decision on this policy will likely be made by the next president.

Banning weapons, of course, is appealing, but it may be difficult to enforce such a treaty. We may be headed into a future in which space launches are regular, perhaps daily events around the world, by private companies as well as nations. Monitoring every launch for weapon-related technology may require the creation of an international agency with the authority to conduct intrusive inspections anywhere it chose. The theory behind banning weapons is also problematic. As the advanced societies depend more and more on space-based assets, those assets will become increasingly valuable to the nations that own them-- and, therefore, perhaps, prime targets in any attack. To argue forcefully such critical national assets should not be defended at all takes real work. Defense, like offense, may require weapons.