Peopling Luna

Recently, both China and Russia have announced timetables for their first manned lunar landings.  For China the target year is 2025, while the Russians are looking at 2030.  Russia seems to see the feat in the context of unfinished business, while China sees the accomplishment as a way to cement its status as a leading world power.  Several major nations, including China, have also expressed some interest in participating in an international progrram to establish a base on the Moon.  So far, the United States is not one of those.

Governments may not have the Moon all to themselves, however.  Randa Milliron, CEO of Interorbital Systems, fully expects IOS to be operating its own lunar base well before 2030.  Bigelow Aerospace firmly believes its inflatable module technology could be used to build a lunar base quickly, and is open to serious partners-- public or private-- to undertake such an effort.

To the extent that China and Russia see a manned lunar landing as an affirmation of national prestige, one has to wonder whether they would be as interested in such a mission if their crews would be met by people already living on the Moon as a result of an achievement by private enterprise.  If not, a private lunar base beating government progrrams there might push nations seeking prestige and technological development to look farther afield.  Mars beckons.